In the glacier year 2024–25 the western tongue of Sólheimajökull retreated ninety-three metres. That is not an estimate, a satellite inference or a press release: it is one line in a table kept by volunteers since 1930, measured this time by a man named Einar Gunnlaugsson. Then, on 22 July 2026, the Icelandic Meteorological Office warned that the ice bridge people had been walking across to reach the snout had thinned past safety, and the tour companies stopped going.
This is a desk-researched dossier. Nobody from this publication has stood at Sólheimajökull. It is built from the Iceland Glaciological Society's data reports in Jökull, the Icelandic Meteorological Office, Almannavarnir, the Icelandic Tourist Board, Neytendastofa, peer-reviewed glaciology, and Icelandic news outlets where they are relaying official statements.
Sólheimajökull is an outlet glacier of Mýrdalsjökull, running about eleven kilometres from around 1,350 metres down to a snout at roughly a hundred metres above sea level, one to two kilometres wide. It is a short drive off Route 1 and about two hours from Reykjavík, which is why it is the glacier most visitors to Iceland meet first. It is also one of the longest continuously measured glacier margins on earth. Those two facts produce a peculiar situation: the disappearance is genuinely documented, and almost everything said about it in public is imprecise.
What the record actually says
The Iceland Glaciological Society — Jöklarannsóknafélag Íslands, JÖRFI — has run an annual front-variation programme since 1930. It is a volunteer network. Around forty stations reported in the most recent cycle, each with a named observer, and the results are published every year as a data report in the society's journal Jökull.
The first thing that record shows is that Sólheimajökull is not one measurement. It is three. The Society's tables have long carried separate rows for vesturtunga, Jökulhaus and austurtunga — the western tongue, the rock knob in the middle, and the eastern tongue — and they do not move together. In the 2003–04 data report the three gave −87 m, −58 m and −39 m for the same year at the same glacier. Any single number quoted for "Sólheimajökull's retreat" has silently chosen one of three answers.
The second thing it shows is that the retreat is not monotonic. Schomacker and colleagues, reconstructing the marginal zone from the Society's series and from aerial photography, found 977 metres of retreat between 1930 and 1969, then an advance of 495 metres between 1970 and 1995, then 750 metres of retreat between 1995 and 2010. Net, the 2010 margin stood 1,232 metres behind where it had been in 1930. The snout thickened by 70 to 100 metres between 1960 and 1996, then thinned by 120 to 150 metres between 1996 and 2010, ending the half-century 20 to 40 metres thinner than it began it. A glacier that "has been retreating since 1930" is a tidier story than the instruments tell.
Since 2010 the numbers come from two programmes that do not quite agree. Hvolsskóli, the school at Hvolsvöllur, has sent its seventh-years out to measure the snout every October since 2010; by October 2021 they had logged 408 metres of cumulative retreat, the marker having moved from 318 to 726 metres from the interpretive sign. Their decade average was about 40 metres a year, with a spread that makes the average nearly useless: 110 metres in 2018, eleven metres in 2019. AFP, reporting the 2019 trip, noted that the Glaciological Society's figure for the preceding year was around 200 metres — roughly double what the children measured, on the same glacier in the same season. We can find no published reconciliation of the two, and we are not going to invent one.
The most recent published figure is JÖRFI's. In Jökull 75, issued in March 2026, Hrafnhildur Hannesdóttir's report for the glacier year 2024–25 gives Sólheimajökull, western tongue: −93 metres. In the same ice cap Öldufellsjökull lost 75 metres with an expanding lake in front of it, and Sléttjökull on the northern side lost 35. The report's own summary line is meirihluti jökulsporða hörfa — the majority of glacier termini are retreating. The Meteorological Office's summary of the season was blunt: the slower phase of 2012–2020 is over, and Icelandic glaciers are losing mass about as fast as they did between 1995 and 2011.
Adding the documented segments — 1,232 metres net to 2010, 408 more by 2021, then the recent years — puts the present snout somewhere near 1.7 kilometres behind its 1930 position. We state that as our own arithmetic across two different measurement programmes, not as a published figure, because no source we could open publishes one.
AI illustrationThe lake is the story now
The lagoon in front of the snout is not scenery. It is the space the glacier used to occupy, and it has become the main control on what happens next.
When it formed is itself disputed. A University of Iceland team led by Greta Wells dates the onset to around 2007; Katla UNESCO Global Geopark says 2011. The gap matters less than the trajectory, and on that the numbers are unusually specific: the lake covered roughly 0.45 km² by 2023, and modelling of the subglacial bed suggests the surface area could quadruple and the volume increase ninefold as the ice withdraws up-valley. The terminus may enter the deepest part of the trough within about a decade and leave the lake basin altogether within a century, with a maximum possible lake extent of some four kilometres up-valley from where the water ends today. The Geopark gives a present depth of about sixty metres.
A glacier ending in deep water does not behave like one ending on gravel. It calves, and the retreat accelerates independently of the summer's weather. The same work identifies the consequence visitors should care about: an emerging outburst-flood hazard, where a rock or ice avalanche into the lake displaces water rather than a volcano melting it.
What happened in July 2026
On 22 July 2026 the Icelandic Meteorological Office published a hazard notice for the margin of Sólheimajökull. The ice ridge serving as the route from the shore to the glacier edge had thinned and destabilised through melting and calving, with a newly formed eastern lagoon on one side and the main lake on the other. The notice warned of collapse, of falling into cold deep water, and — separately — of rockfall from the Jökulhaus slope above the access path, noting that the rocks can be large, that the hazard rises with rain and freeze-thaw, and that rockfalls cannot be accurately predicted. Conditions on the route, it said, had been changing substantially from day to day.
Tour operators suspended trips and began looking for an alternative approach. Anyone planning to be at Sólheimajökull now should treat the guided walk as provisional and check the Meteorological Office directly rather than a booking platform.
The route to the ice was itself made of ice. That is the sentence that explains both the appeal of this place and its current closure.
Katla, and the floods that are not eruptions
Mýrdalsjökull sits on Katla: an ice-filled caldera nine by fourteen kilometres, a summit near 1,490 metres, and at least twenty-one eruptions in the past eleven hundred years, the last one to break the ice surface in October–November 1918. Roughly one to two eruptions a century is the working figure in the civil-protection literature.
The relevant hazard for a visitor is not the eruption. It is the jökulhlaup — the outburst flood — which can and does occur without one. Geothermal cauldrons in the caldera melt ice from below, water pools, and eventually the seal fails.
- 18 July 1999. A flood down Jökulsá á Sólheimasandi, preceded by five hours of tremor and by fifteen supraglacial cauldrons appearing on the ice. Modelling puts peak discharge at the terminus near 4,780 m³/s; 1,700 m³/s was recorded at the bridge four kilometres downstream an hour after onset, and flow was back near base level within about six hours. It shifted some 470,000 cubic metres of sediment, cut up to 8.2 metres into the ice-marginal ground and left a boulder fan with blocks over ten metres across.
- 9 July 2011. Four cauldrons in the southeastern caldera drained into Múlakvísl, on the other side of the ice cap. The bridge carrying Route 1 was swept away. No eruption.
- 8–11 July 2025. Cauldrons 13 and 14 drained into Leirá Syðri and Skálm. Elevated conductivity, a smell of hydrogen sulphide, and a warning about gas pollution near the rivers. Again, no eruption.
Almannavarnir's Katla response plan models flood routes onto Sólheimasandur, Mýrdalssandur and west toward Markarfljót, and warns in plain terms that in many places the time available to evacuate is short. Alerting is by SMS to phones in the affected area. Worth knowing before you park on a sandur.
The industry on the ice, and the rules that do not exist
Iceland recorded about 2.27 million departing foreign visitors through Keflavík in 2025, and 79 per cent of foreign travellers visited the south. Sólheimajökull is one of the places that number lands on, through guided walks, ice-climbing introductions and winter cave trips sold by several licensed operators at prices in the low tens of thousands of krónur.
What is not obvious from a booking page is how thin the statutory scaffolding is. Under the Act on the Icelandic Tourist Board, No. 96/2018, any operator running organised tours in Iceland must hold safety plans for each tour type; the Board audits at random, requires incident reports, and can levy daily fines of ISK 50,000 to 500,000. That is real. What is not real is a legal standard for who may lead people onto a glacier. The Tourist Board's requirements on guide knowledge, experience and training for glacier walking are leiðbeinandi reglur — advisory rules, issued after a safety bill failed in parliament in 2012 and still awaiting binding regulation. Certification is handled by the industry's own association, not the state.
The gap became visible on 25 August 2024, when an ice wall collapsed during a summer ice-cave tour at Breiðamerkurjökull, killing an American visitor and injuring his fiancée. That glacier is inside Vatnajökull National Park, which responded by imposing conditions on its operator contracts from autumn 2024: a designated lead guide, daily joint safety assessments of each cave and of overhanging ice, and a professional oversight council funded by per-client fees.
None of that applies at Sólheimajökull. Those measures are contractual conditions of access to a national park. Sólheimajökull is not in a national park. In April 2025 a safety specialist told Iceland Review flatly that there are no established rules in Iceland for how ice-cave tours should be conducted outside Vatnajökull, that the Tourist Board lacks the authority to make them, and that a ministerial regulation or an act of parliament would be required. As far as we can establish, that remains the position in August 2026.
What popular coverage gets wrong
Two claims dominate, and both are checkable.
The first is a bare rate. One large operator's own page describes Sólheimajökull as "retreating at an average rate of about 60 meters (200 feet) annually" — no baseline year, no station, no period. Set it against the record: 977 metres over the 39 years to 1969 is about 25 m/yr; the 1970–1995 stretch is an advance, so the rate there is negative; the schoolchildren's decade averages about 40 m/yr but contains a year of 110 and a year of 11; the Glaciological Society's most recent published year is 93 metres at one of three stakes. There is no year in which "about 60 metres" is the measured figure, and there is no defensible period over which it is the mean. It is a plausible-sounding average of nothing in particular. The honest formulation is a range with a station and a period attached, which is what the Society publishes and what almost nobody quotes.
The second is the deadline. "Gone by 2030" and "gone by 2050" circulate freely. No projection we could find says either, for this glacier. Katla Geopark's own page puts complete disappearance at 100 to 200 years. The Wells modelling has the terminus leaving the lake basin within about a century. Compagno and colleagues project that Icelandic glaciers as a whole lose between 43 ± 11 per cent (RCP2.6) and 85 ± 7 per cent (RCP8.5) of present volume by 2100 — substantial, and not disappearance. Vatnajökull National Park's public material says roughly half of Iceland's glacier volume by 2100, with only small ice caps on the highest ground after 200 years. Aðalgeirsdóttir and colleagues, reviewing the modelling in 2020, cite ice-cap-specific projections to 2100 of about 80 per cent for Langjökull, 60 for Hofsjökull and 20–30 for Vatnajökull, noting that these probably understate the loss. Those numbers disagree with each other by a lot. None of them is 2030.
Where does 2050 come from? Most likely from a 2022 UNESCO assessment finding that glaciers at about a third of World Heritage sites will disappear by 2050 — which is a statement about specified World Heritage properties. Iceland's glacier World Heritage site is Vatnajökull National Park, inscribed in 2019 under criterion (viii). Sólheimajökull is not in it. Sólheimajökull sits in Katla UNESCO Global Geopark, 9,542 km² across three municipalities — a different programme with a different purpose. Two designations, one adjective, a decade of confused headlines.
Okjökull, and what a funeral was for
The framing that surrounds Sólheimajökull was largely built at another mountain. Okjökull, on Ok in the west, covered about 16 km² in 1890 and 0.7 km² by 2012. In 2014 Oddur Sigurðsson of the Meteorological Office struck it off: no longer a living glacier, only dead ice, not moving. In August 2019 a plaque was set into the bare rock, its text addressed to the future and the May 2019 atmospheric carbon dioxide figure of 415 ppm stamped at the bottom. The prime minister, the environment minister and the former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights walked up for it.
It is worth reading the sentence that is usually cropped out of the coverage. The plaque does not say the glaciers are going in a decade. It says that in the next 200 years all of Iceland's glaciers are expected to follow the same path. The most quoted monument to glacier loss in the world is already more conservative than the journalism that quotes it.
Access, and what it costs
Route 1 to the Road 221 turn-off, then roughly four kilometres of side road to a car park of about fifty spaces at the end. Parking is charged at ISK 750 through the Parka app, payable up to 24 hours after leaving; there is no entry fee to the site itself. Iceland's parking-fee industry at natural attractions is contested: in June 2025 Neytendastofa, the Consumer Agency, fined Parka Lausnir ehf. ISK 1,000,000 over price and boundary information at its sites, though Sólheimajökull was not among the specific locations found in breach.
The walk from the car park to the viewpoint is short, uneven and — as of the July 2026 notice — routed beneath a slope with an active rockfall hazard. Do not step onto ice without a guide, and understand that in present conditions the guides themselves have been declining to go.
AI illustrationWhy the Silence Index is 39
Low, and correctly so. Almost nothing here is difficult: a paved approach, a signposted turn, a car park with a payment app, and in an ordinary season a rotation of minibuses from Reykjavík delivering people onto the most accessible ice in the country. Difficulty is most of what the Index rewards, and this place has almost none of it.
What keeps the score off the floor is that the thing itself is legible. You can stand on ground that was under ice when the measurements started, and the distance is a published number with a named observer attached. The quiet at Sólheimajökull is not acoustic. It is the quiet of an argument already settled by data, in front of a queue of people photographing the evidence.
Corner Codex — D-010
- Place
- Sólheimajökull, southwest outlet of Mýrdalsjökull, south Iceland
- Coordinates
- 63.53°N, 19.37°W — car park at the end of Road 221
- Dimensions
- About 11 km long, 1–2 km wide, from roughly 1,350 m down to about 100 m
- Measured since
- 1930, by the Iceland Glaciological Society (JÖRFI), at three stakes
- Latest year
- −93 m at the western tongue, glacier year 2024–25 (Jökull 75, 2026)
- 1930 to 2010
- Net 1,232 m behind the 1930 margin — including a 495 m advance, 1970–1995
- The lagoon
- About 0.45 km² by 2023; projected to quadruple in area, ninefold in volume
- Parent ice cap
- Mýrdalsjökull: 736 km² in 1890, 596 in 2000, 520 in 2019
- Underneath
- Katla, an ice-filled 9 × 14 km caldera; last eruption through the ice, 1918
- Status, August 2026
- IMO hazard notice of 22 July 2026; operators suspended trips
- Parking
- ISK 750 via the Parka app; no entry fee to the site itself
- Silence Index
- 39 / 100
Silence Index
A legacy editorial rating based on desk research. It is not an acoustic measurement or a safety rating.
Earlier and later dossiers used different fourth inputs. Individual input scores were not recorded, so these totals cannot be independently reproduced or used for precise comparisons between places.
The Traveler's Panel · checked
Changing information. Prices, permits, seasons and road access change, sometimes at short notice. Everything here is a starting point for your own confirmation — not a quote, and not a guarantee. Verify with the operator and the relevant official body before you book.
| Status, August 2026 | IMO hazard notice of 22 July 2026 in force; operators suspended trips |
| Latest measured retreat | −93 m, western tongue, glacier year 2024–25 (JÖRFI, Jökull 75) |
| Record since | 1930 — three separate stakes on the same snout, not one |
| Access | Route 1 → Road 221 → car park (~4 km), about 50 spaces |
| Parking | ISK 750 via the Parka app, payable up to 24 hrs after leaving. No site entry fee |
| Guide | Mandatory in practice. There is no statutory guide qualification in Iceland |
| Ice caves | Winter feature. The stricter 2024 cave rules apply only inside Vatnajökull NP |
| Cancellation risk | High at present, and normally moderate — weather and ice conditions |
Getting there — Keflavík (KEF) → Route 1 → Road 221
- Fly to Keflavík, then drive Route 1 east along the south coast. Sólheimajökull is about 160 km from Reykjavík, roughly two hours in ordinary conditions.
- Turn onto Road 221 and follow it about four kilometres to the car park at the end. Pay ISK 750 in the Parka app; you have 24 hours after leaving to do it.
- Before setting out, check the Icelandic Meteorological Office directly — not a booking site — for the current hazard status at the margin. The notice issued on 22 July 2026 describes conditions on the approach route changing substantially from day to day.
- Check road.is for the road and safetravel.is for standing safety guidance. The south coast changes weather faster than the forecast interval.
- If you intend to go onto the ice, book with a licensed operator and expect the trip to be cancelled if the guides judge the route unsafe. Treat that as the system working.
- The river below the glacier, Jökulsá á Sólheimasandi, is a jökulhlaup route. Katla has produced outburst floods without erupting in 1999, 2011 and again in July 2025.
Indicative costs — verify before booking
| Parking | ISK 750 per car via the Parka app; no entrance fee to the site |
| Introductory glacier walk | Commonly quoted around ISK 11,000–15,000 pp; confirm directly |
| Glacier hike plus ice-climbing intro | Commonly quoted around ISK 18,000–25,000 pp |
| Guided ice cave (winter only) | Seasonal and priced separately; not a summer product |
| Verify | These are indicative ranges gathered from operator-facing pages, not quotes. Prices, seasons and — at present — whether tours run at all, change. Confirm with the operator and check the Met Office hazard status the same day. |
What to pack
- Waterproof shell and warm mid-layers. Wool or synthetic base layers, no cotton.
- Boots stiff enough to take crampons; most operators will rent suitable pairs.
- Gloves, hat and eye protection — glare off ice and wind-driven grit off the sandur.
- A helmet if you have one and are walking the approach path; the July 2026 notice flags rockfall from the Jökulhaus slope above the route.
- Water and food. The walk-in plus time on the ice is longer than the tour duration suggests.
Where to stay
Vík í Mýrdal, about half an hour east, is the practical base: guesthouses, hotels, fuel and food, and far enough from the glacier that you are not committed to it if the hazard status changes overnight. Skógar and the farms between Skógafoss and Vík put you closer for an early start, which in an ordinary season is the difference between the snout to yourself and the snout with four minibuses. Hvolsvöllur, further west, is the seat of Katla UNESCO Global Geopark and of the school whose seventh-years have been measuring this glacier every October since 2010.
Safety & responsible travel
- Do not walk onto the ice without a qualified glacier guide, and do not cross ice bridges to reach the snout. The Met Office's July 2026 notice exists because that is exactly what the route required.
- Stay off the margin ground where it is marked or roped. The proglacial zone is loose, recently deglaciated moraine and the lagoons on either side are deep and near freezing.
- Accept cancellations. There is no legal standard in Iceland for who may lead a glacier walk; an operator that calls off a trip is exercising the only real safeguard in the system.
- Do not quote a single retreat figure without saying which stake and which year. The Society measures three points on this snout and they disagree by tens of metres in the same season.
- Accessibility: the approach is short but uneven, and going onto the ice is unsuitable for anyone with significant mobility limitations. The current rockfall advisory makes lingering beneath the slope inadvisable for everyone.
Nearby, and quieter
Skógafoss and the Skógá river path above it are minutes west. Dyrhólaey and Reynisfjara lie east toward Vík, where the sneaker waves are a genuine and repeatedly fatal hazard — stay well back from the water. Mýrdalssandur and Sólheimasandur are the flood plains of the same volcano you are standing on top of at the glacier. For ice caves under the stricter oversight regime, the Breiðamerkurjökull caves inside Vatnajökull National Park are the ones covered by the 2024 rules; the caves elsewhere in Iceland are not.
Getting there, in order
- 1Keflavík (KEF)
- 2Route 1
- 3Road 221
Each leg is a separate booking and a separate chance to be weathered out. Build spare days into the chain, not onto the end of it.
Where it is
Iceland · 63.5300°N 19.3700°W · Open in Google Maps · OpenStreetMap
Key locations
- Sólheimajökull car park — about fifty spaces at the end of Road 221; ISK 750 through Parka
63.5304°N 19.3730°W - Sólheimajökull — the outlet glacier whose margin the Met Office flagged on 22 July 2026
63.5570°N 19.3027°W - Mýrdalsjökull — the ice cap it drains, and the ice sitting on Katla
63.6432°N 19.1737°W - Katla — the caldera whose geothermal cauldrons drain without an eruption
63.6315°N 19.0623°W - Sólheimasandur — the outwash plain the July 1999 jökulhlaup ran across
63.4732°N 19.3634°W - Hvolsvöllur — Hvolsskóli, whose seventh-years have measured the snout every October since 2010
63.7507°N 20.2245°W
Coordinates are for orientation and are accurate to roughly the width of the feature named, not to a doorway. Several of these points are inside protected areas or need a permit, a guide or a boat — read the access notes above before you plan a route to any of them.
Sources & further reading — checked
- Jökull 75 (2026) — Hrafnhildur Hannesdóttir, Jökulsporðamælingar 2024–2025. The Iceland Glaciological Society's data report for the 2024–25 glacier year: about 40 reporting stations; Sólheimajökull western tongue −93 m, observer Einar Gunnlaugsson; Öldufellsjökull −75 m with an expanding lake; Sléttjökull −35 m; and the summary line that the majority of glacier termini are retreating
- Jökull 62 (2012) — Schomacker et al., Late Holocene and modern glacier changes in the marginal zone of Sólheimajökull. 977 m of retreat 1930–1969; a 495 m advance 1970–1995; 750 m of retreat 1995–2010; the 2010 margin 1,232 m behind its 1930 position; thickening of 70–100 m 1960–1996 and thinning of 120–150 m 1996–2010
- Jökull 55 (2005) — Oddur Sigurðsson, data report: Jöklabreytingar 1930–1960, 1960–1990 og 2003–2004. That Sólheimajökull is measured at three separate stations — vesturtunga, Jökulhaus and austurtunga — which returned −87 m, −58 m and −39 m for 2003–04, across a table of 46 sites
- Jökull 70 (2020) — Hannesdóttir et al., A national glacier inventory and variations in glacier extent in Iceland from the Little Ice Age maximum to 2019. Icelandic glacier area of about 12,594 km² in 1890, 11,129 in 2000 and 10,371 in 2019, declining roughly 40 km² a year; Mýrdalsjökull at 736, 596 and 520 km² for the same years, spanning 100–1,500 m; about 3,400 km³ of water stored in Icelandic ice
- Icelandic Meteorological Office — Increased hazard due to changing conditions at the margin of Sólheimajökull glacier (22 July 2026). The thinned and unstable ice ridge forming the route to the glacier edge; the new eastern lagoon alongside the main lake; the rockfall hazard from the Jökulhaus slope above the access route; and the statement that operators had suspended trips
- Veðurstofa Íslands — Jöklar á Íslandi halda áfram að rýrna (29 June 2026). The 2024–25 measurement round at about 130 sites; the finding that the slower phase of 2012–2020 has ended and mass loss has returned to 1995–2011 rates; and that change is greatest on the larger outlets of Vatnajökull, Langjökull and Mýrdalsjökull
- Wells, Sæmundsson, Magnússon, Aðalgeirsdóttir and Pálsson — Glacial lake development and outburst flood hazard at Sólheimajökull glacier, Iceland (EGU General Assembly 2026). Lake onset around 2007; about 0.45 km² by 2023; projected fourfold growth in area and ninefold in volume; the terminus reaching the deepest trough within about a decade and leaving the basin within a century; a maximum extent about 4 km up-valley; and the mass-movement-triggered outburst flood hazard
- Katla UNESCO Global Geopark — Sólheimajökull geosite. The glacier at about 11 km long and 1–2 km wide, from roughly 1,350 m to about 100 m; the lagoon dated to 2011 and about 60 m deep with a potential 4 km length; and the estimate that the glacier could disappear within 100–200 years
- Katla UNESCO Global Geopark — About. The geopark covering 9,542 km², about 9.3% of Iceland, across Rangárþing eystra, Mýrdalshreppur and Skaftárhreppur — a UNESCO Global Geopark, which is a different designation from World Heritage
- UNESCO World Heritage Centre — Vatnajökull National Park, Dynamic Nature of Fire and Ice. Iceland's glacier World Heritage property, inscribed in 2019 under criterion (viii) over roughly 1.48 million hectares — and containing neither Mýrdalsjökull nor Sólheimajökull
- Aðalgeirsdóttir et al. — Glacier Changes in Iceland From ~1890 to 2019 (Frontiers in Earth Science, November 2020). The review of Icelandic glacier change and the ice-cap-specific projections it cites for 2100 — about 80% mass loss for Langjökull, 60% for Hofsjökull and 20–30% for Vatnajökull — with the authors' caveat that these underestimate decline
- Compagno et al. — Limited impact of climate forcing products on future glacier evolution in Scandinavia and Iceland (Journal of Glaciology, 2021). Projected volume loss for Icelandic glaciers by 2100 of 43 ± 11% under RCP2.6 and 85 ± 7% under RCP8.5 — large, and short of disappearance
- Vatnajökulsþjóðgarður — Melting Glaciers project. The official public framing that Icelandic glaciers could lose half their volume by 2100 and that after 200 years only small ice caps would remain on the highest ground
- Staines and Carrivick — Geomorphological impact and morphodynamic effects on flow conveyance of the 1999 jökulhlaup at Sólheimajökull (author manuscript, White Rose). The 18 July 1999 outburst flood: onset around 02:00, fifteen supraglacial cauldrons, modelled peak discharge near 4,780 m³/s at the terminus against 1,700 m³/s measured 4 km downstream, return to base level in about six hours, some 470,000 m³ of sediment moved, 8.2 m of maximum erosion and boulders over 10 m across
- Icelandic Meteorological Office — Katla volcano. The ice-filled 9 × 14 km caldera, at least 21 eruptions in the past 1,100 years, the last eruption through the ice in 1918, and jökulhlaups as the characteristic accompanying hazard
- Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program — Katla. Summit elevation of 1,490 m and the 1918 eruption dated 12 October to 4 November with a VEI of 4 — used as a cross-check on the Met Office's figures
- Icelandic Meteorological Office — Glacier-outburst flood from Mýrdalsjökull (July 2011). The 9 July 2011 jökulhlaup from four cauldrons in the southeastern Katla caldera down Múlakvísl, which swept away the Route 1 bridge without an eruption
- Icelandic Meteorological Office — A jökulhlaup from Mýrdalsjökull into the rivers Leirá Syðri and Skálm (July 2025). The 8–11 July 2025 outburst from cauldrons 13 and 14, elevated conductivity, the hydrogen sulphide smell and gas-pollution warning, and confirmation that no eruption occurred
- Almannavarnir — Viðbragðsáætlun vegna Kötlu og Eyjafjallajökuls. The civil-protection plan: eruptions roughly once or twice a century, SMS alerting to phones in the affected area, modelled flood routes over Sólheimasandur and Mýrdalssandur and westward, and the warning that evacuation time is short in many places
- Ferðamálastofa / Icelandic Tourist Board — Safety plans. The mandatory safety-plan requirement under the Act on the Icelandic Tourist Board No. 96/2018, random audits, incident reporting, and daily fines of ISK 50,000–500,000
- Ferðamálastofa — Leiðbeinandi reglur um öryggismál ferðaskrifstofa og ferðaskipuleggjenda. That the requirements on knowledge, experience and training for guides leading glacier walks are advisory only, issued after a safety bill failed in parliament in 2012 and still awaiting binding regulation
- Iceland Review — Ice Cave Tours Unregulated Beyond Vatnajökull (3 April 2025). The statement that there are no established rules in Iceland for how ice-cave tours should be run outside Vatnajökull National Park, that the Tourist Board lacks the authority to issue them, and that a ministerial regulation or an act of parliament would be needed
- Iceland Review — Stricter Safety Rules Imposed for Vatnajökull Ice-Cave Tours. The conditions imposed on operator contracts from autumn 2024 at Breiðamerkurjökull: a designated lead guide, daily joint safety assessment of caves and overhanging ice, and a fee-funded oversight council — all of them contractual, and confined to the national park
- The Reykjavík Grapevine — Breaking Point: Fatal Ice Cave Accident Raises Big Questions For Tourism Safety (6 September 2024). The 25 August 2024 ice-wall collapse at Breiðamerkurjökull that killed one visitor and injured another, and the account of Iceland's reliance on operator self-reporting and non-binding guidance rather than enforceable safety law
- The Reykjavík Grapevine — Students Measuring Sólheimajökull's Reduction (15 October 2021). Hvolsskóli's annual measurement since 2010; 408 m of cumulative retreat by October 2021, the marker moving from 318 m to 726 m from the interpretive sign; and the lagoon now requiring a boat
- Taipei Times / AFP — Iceland students measure the rate of glacier retreat (12 November 2019). The students' figures of 110 m in 2018 and 11 m in 2019, an average near 40 m a year across the decade — and the note that the Glaciological Society's own figure for the preceding year was around 200 m, roughly double
- Neytendastofa — Ákvörðun nr. 19/2025: Upplýsingagjöf og viðskiptahættir Parka Lausna ehf.. The Consumer Agency's decision of 5 June 2025 fining Parka Lausnir ehf. ISK 1,000,000 over price and boundary information at its car parks, with Sólheimajökull appearing among the company's managed sites but not among the locations found in breach
- Ferðamálastofa — Ferðaþjónusta í tölum, samantekt fyrir árið 2025 (4 February 2026). About 2.27 million departing foreign passengers through Keflavík in 2025, and 79% of foreign travellers visiting South Iceland
- Arctic Adventures — Sólheimajökull attraction page. The commercial claim that the glacier is 'retreating at an average rate of about 60 meters (200 feet) annually', quoted here as the example being corrected; also the ISK 750 Parka parking fee, the road-221 car park and the ~160 km distance from Reykjavík
- Phys.org / AFP — Iceland commemorates first glacier lost to climate change (August 2019). Okjökull at about 16 km² in 1890 and 0.7 km² by 2012; its removal from glacier status in 2014 by Oddur Sigurðsson; the plaque's 415 ppm figure and its wording that in the next 200 years all Iceland's glaciers are expected to follow the same path; and the attendance of the prime minister, the environment minister and Mary Robinson
- Rice University — Rice anthropologists' tribute to Iceland's first lost glacier joins global preservation effort (2025). Cymene Howe and Dominic Boyer as the memorial's originators, and its later use in the international 'Breaking the Ice' exhibition tied to the UN International Year of Glaciers' Preservation
- Veðurstofa Íslands — Jöklavefsjá opnuð. The glacier web viewer at islenskirjoklar.is, opened 20 March 2022, carrying terminus measurements back to 1930 alongside outlines and repeat photography
- Náttúrufræðistofnun — Ný yfirlitsgrein um íslenska jökla (April 2026). The 2026 review 'Íslenskir jöklar' in Náttúrufræðingurinn 95: 4–47 by Gunnarsson, Hannesdóttir, Pálsson, Jóhannesson, Aðalgeirsdóttir, Björnsson and others — the current synthesis, and the count of roughly 400 named Icelandic glaciers
- Upplifðu Suðurland / Visit South Iceland — Varasamar aðstæður við Sólheimajökul (23 July 2026). The regional tourist board's relay of the hazard notice: the small new lagoon east of the terminus, the thinned ice bridge, and operators suspending trips while looking for safer alternatives
Official and scientific bodies are the authority for safety, regulatory and scientific claims. Commercial operators are used only for practical detail such as tour length, meeting points and indicative pricing — never for a safety or scientific statement.
How this was made
Desk research. Compiled from official bodies, scientific and conservation sources, established journalism and licensed operators. Not based on a personal visit.
Editor’s method note — what we checked, corrected and could not verify
- Desk research only. No one from this publication has been to Sólheimajökull, and the reporting here leans on the Iceland Glaciological Society's published data reports rather than on operator marketing.
- The previous version of this dossier described the retreat in vague terms — 'tens of metres a year', 'treat any single number as a snapshot' — and cited a Jökull PDF without saying what was in it. We have replaced that with the actual segments: 977 m of retreat 1930–1969, a 495 m advance 1970–1995, 750 m of retreat 1995–2010, a 2010 margin 1,232 m behind 1930, 408 m more by 2021 on the school's series, and −93 m for the 2024–25 glacier year.
- We corrected the single most repeated error, which is quoting one retreat rate as if the glacier had one. The Society measures Sólheimajökull at three stations and they differ by tens of metres in the same year. Where the schoolchildren's series and the Society's series disagree — roughly 110 m against roughly 200 m for the same year — we say so and leave both figures standing rather than averaging them.
- We added the current situation, which the previous version predated: the Meteorological Office's hazard notice of 22 July 2026 covering the unstable ice ridge, the two lagoons and the rockfall from Jökulhaus, and the suspension of tours that followed.
- We removed the previous version's confident claim that natural ice caves at Sólheimajökull are simply a mid-October to late-March product. That is operator practice, not regulation. The only binding-in-practice ice-cave rules in Iceland are contractual conditions imposed by Vatnajökull National Park at Breiðamerkurjökull after the fatal collapse of 25 August 2024, and they do not reach Sólheimajökull, which is not in a national park.
- We tested the 'gone by 2030 or 2050' framing and could not source it to any projection for this glacier. The published range runs from 100–200 years for Sólheimajökull specifically to 43–85% of Icelandic glacier volume by 2100 nationally. The 2050 date most plausibly comes from a UNESCO assessment of World Heritage glaciers, and Sólheimajökull is not in a World Heritage property — it is in a UNESCO Global Geopark, which is a different programme.
- Things we could not verify: the exact statutory length and surface classification of Road 221 in Vegagerðin's road register, which we could not open; whether the July 2026 hazard notice has since been lifted or an alternative route opened, since no later Met Office notice existed as of 13 August 2026; the units of the 1930–1960 and 1960–1990 columns in the 2005 JÖRFI data report, which carry no footnote and which we therefore did not quote; the year Katla Geopark received UNESCO Global Geopark status, absent from its own pages; whether any fatality has ever occurred on a guided walk at Sólheimajökull specifically, as opposed to elsewhere in Iceland, since the rescue-service callout records we found returned errors; current operator prices in krónur, which we could only gather from secondary listings and have flagged as indicative; the present visitor count at Sólheimajökull, which does not appear in Ferðamálastofa's published site-level data; and the depth and bathymetry of the new eastern lagoon named in the July 2026 notice, which as far as we can tell has not yet been surveyed in public.
- Coordinates for the key locations come from Katla UNESCO Global Geopark's own geosite page for Sólheimajökull, which pins the car park at 63.53043, −19.37299, and from GeoNames for the glacier, the ice cap, the caldera, the sandur and Hvolsvöllur. Visit South Iceland gives Sólheimajökull as N63° 31' 50.775" W19° 22' 15.185", which is the same car park to within about twenty metres. We could not verify a coordinate for Jökulhaus, the rock knob above the access path named in the July 2026 rockfall notice, or for the new eastern lagoon, so neither is pinned.
AI is used to draft this text, and a human checks it. Tony Hall is responsible for editorial verification against the reference list. Our standard is to distinguish documented facts, disputed accounts and claims we could not verify. Errors can remain; readers can report them through the corrections page. The illustrations are AI-created and labelled as such — no photograph on this site is presented as a record of a real place. Full disclosure · Editorial policy.
Access details change — recheck before you travel. Found an error? Tell us — corrections are dated and shown in place.
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